Gov. Noem’s political paramour Donald Trump gets slapped by Ronald Reagan’s legacy managers at the Reagan Library

Gov. Kristi Noem certainly didn’t mince any words with her fawning introduction to former President Donald Trump when they showed up for a rally in Rapid City last September 8. Said Noem: “He is the leader, the fighter that our country needs. He has my full and complete endorsement for President of the United States of America.”

Not only did the unequivocal Noem (seen above at a 2019 White House meeting in an official federal government photo posted by wikimedia) obsequiously endorse Trump, she vilified the rest of South Dakota’s top Republican leadership for not showing up at the event. Of the absent Sens. Rounds and Thune and Rep. Johnson she said, scoldingly, “let me be clear. There are many who choose not to be in the arena. Many who take the easy path. Who criticize. Who don’t show up for our party, our country or our constitutional rights. They don’t show up for you when it really matters. They didn’t even show up tonight to welcome a former president of the United States to South Dakota.” 

I noted here that I thought her slam at fellow Republicans for not making an appearance was gratuitous and probably exposed some of the cracks showing up in the GOP. As news has developed since then, my sense that cracks are appearing in the Republican Party is getting supported by facts, and it could be that the ever-more-marginalized Donald Trump might be turning into a political handicap for the party as the 2024 election cycle starts wheeling in. 

The recent disavowal, as reported by Politico, of Trump by some of the Reagan Library’s managers probably says out loud what many Republicans are already thinking: Trump’s a liability.

One trustee called Trump “a spoiled brat in a sandbox,” adding, “So many of the things that Trump did, and what he stood for, are just not consistent with the Reagan philosophy.” Another trustee said, regarding other board members, that Trump “drives some of them nuts.”

Offsetting some of that antagonism, the Politico reporter did attend a lawn party on the library’s grounds that week and reported that among the attendees, their “overwhelming” choice for the coming nomination is Trump.

That, of course, is consistent with Trump’s generally big lead among polled Republicans, but the fact that some Reagan Library trustees, who likely represent the creme de la creme of California’s GOP establishment, are emboldened enough to speak out against Trump seems a pretty clear indication that Trump’s support is softening.

As to polls, the latest numbers from New Hampshire in a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll, comes up with a surprisingly weak number for Trump. Yes, Trump leads the GOP pack with 39%, but that plurality only tells us that 61% of New Hampshire Republicans are willing to consider somebody else as their party nominee. If Republicans in that state can coalesce around one of Trump’s rivals, a shock wave will hit the GOP when primary time rolls around.  

A more telling result from that New Hampshire poll should give Republicans a series of second thoughts when it comes to supporting Trump.  Biden, who carried the state by 7 points in 2020, now has a 12 point lead.  

I know I’m strongly biased against Trump, so maybe I’m overstating it, but New Hampshire might be Trump’s canary in the coal mine.

The primary there is usually in January, though a date for ‘24 has yet to be set. State law requires that it be the first primary in the nation, so January is probably when it will occur.  

Given the news out of New Hampshire and the outright disavowal of Donald Trump by some significant GOP voices on the west coast, Gov. Noem might consider taking the path that our other Republican leaders took when they turned their attention and support, as Thune and Rounds did, to one of Trump’s rivals (in this case Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina) or reject the idea of endorsing someone for the GOP nominee altogether, as Rep. Johnson has done.  

Less than a year ago, Noem was saying that Trump “does not offer the best chance” for the GOP in the coming election. She added “if we narrow our focus there, then we’re not talking to every single American. Our job is not just to talk to people who love Trump or hate Trump. Our job is to talk to every single American.”

Noem’s confidence in Trump is probably bolstered with news of a national poll by ABC-Washington Post. It came out this morning showing Trump with a substantial, nearly 10% lead over Biden. In context, this one seems to be an outlier when taken together with all the most recent polling, which show a much tighter race. 

If, as I see it, Trump’s support is softening in the way that some emerging data and rhetoric are beginning to indicate, Kristi Noem would be doing her party a favor by expressing some willingness to consider others who might have a better chance against Biden for the GOP nod next year.

The sooner the party migrates away from Trump, the better its chances for winning next year. Noem has the opportunity to move that process along by rethinking and reversing her unabashed support for the guy who couldn’t win the popular vote when he was at the top of his game and doesn’t seem likely to do much better in ‘24.

John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills.  He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years.  His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald.  Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam.