U.S. tourism industry will take a hit from loss of Canadian traffic. Why? Trump’s tariffs. South Dakota won’t be immune

U.S. tourism information sources are loaded these days with reports about the harsh effects we’re about to be feel from the significant loss of Canadian visitors this year. The obvious reason? President Trump’s tariffs, along Trump’s bluster and bombast directed at Canada.

Need some stats? Here ya go.

Here’s a report from yesterday’s OAG, a widely followed source of air travel data, reporting on Canadian-U.S. flight bookings: Through Oct. 2025, bookings are down 70% compared to last year.  

Here’s a report last month from the U.S. Travel Association on potential results of a decline in Canadian travel to the United States in 2025:  “A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending.”

Here’s the Economic Times writing about Maine tourism operators “sounding the alarm as Canadian tourists ditch the state.”

And here’s a Gulf Coast News video lamenting the “exodus of Canadian traffic” from Florida.

I can’t find South Dakota-specific data (help me out, readers) that tracks Canadian visitation numbers to our state, but data or no data, it’s probably reasonable to expect South Dakota’s share of Canadian traffic to to be negatively affected by President Trump’s tariff policies.

All the reporting I’ve seen makes it plenty clear that a dropoff in Canadian visitation is a consequence of Trump’s headstrong policies and rhetoric on trade and tariffs, which has been particularly sharp when directed at Canada.

Meantime, the president expects us to brace ourselves for some painful economic adjustments as the tariffs do their damage to our economy. Taking the long view, Trump acknowledges that his tariffs will bring “some pain,” but that “it’s worth the price” to “make America great again . . . worth the price that must be paid.” 

The president’s notion that we’ll be experiencing some sort of transitory pain on our way to achieving American economic nirvana is ludicrous. Mark Zandi, the top economist at financial behemoth Moody’s, predicted today on CNN that Trump’s gambit will backfire, resulting in higher prices and fewer jobs.

And it isn’t just Zandi who’s negative on Trump’s tariff plans. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz notes that “virtually all economists think that the impact of the tariffs will be very bad for America and for the world.”

Even one of Trump’s most highly regarded economists, Arthur Laffer, who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom from Trump in 2019, has said “the proposed tariff risks causing irreparable damage” to America’s auto industry.

Meantime, the ultra-wealthy Donald Trump hawks his tariff plans with a forecast of pain for the masses even as he and his rich associates know full well they won’t feel an ounce of financial discomfort as the tariffs kick in. They’ll know nothing of “paying the price that must be paid.”

The real price-payers, to be specific about tourism, are the operators of small businesses like motels, restaurants and attractions. They would feel significant pain if their receipts went down by, say, 10%, which seems plausible considering how many Canadians will be ducking the United States this year. 

It’s easy enough to say the pain is “worth the price that must be paid” when somebody else is doing the paying.

John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission.

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