GOP debate discloses disarray, chaos among Pubs. Is the party being destroyed by a monster of its own creation?

I love the image above (I found it in Wikimedia Commons). It’s an 1834 British lithograph titled “A Prophetic Alegorical Sketch. The Frankenstiens destroyed by the Monster of their own.” 

The artwork’s theme was applied to the chaotic political conditions that existed in Great Britain in those days, but it  seems just as applicable to the condition of the modern Republican Party right here in the U.S.A.

Why? Because the chaos and disarray of the GOP was on full display at last Wednesday’s so-called Republican debate. The 90 minutes of rhetorical anarchy pitted a second-tier of rivals (Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott and Doug Burgum) for the party’s nomination of a candidate for the top spot of the ticket in 2024. I say “second-tier” because, of course, former President Donald Trump is the sole occupant of the top tier, given his dominating lead in the race for the GOP nominee for president. His nearly 60% support level is daunting indeed.

As to last Wednesday’s gathering, “debate” is probably the last word that should be used to describe the rancorous free-for-all. The participants hammered each other (Nikki Haley said she feels “dumber” after listening to Vivek Ramaswamy) and no-show Donald Trump (Chris Christie said the former president should be called “Donald Duck” for avoiding these events).

It got tiresome and repetitive, but that seems to be about the only way the contestants can deal with the reality that they’re competing for, at best, a chance to emerge as the only serious challenge to Trump’s grip on the GOP.  

In the process, they’re reinforcing my sense that a split has developed in the Republican Party, a split that was on full display here in South Dakota a few weeks ago when Donald Trump made his appearance in Rapid City. Our Gov. Kristi Noem gave Trump a full-throated endorsement, which she immediately followed up by chastising South Dakota’s other leading Republicans, Sens. John Thune and Mike Rounds and Rep. Dusty Johnson, for not showing up at the rally.  

That Thune and Rounds have already endorsed South Carolina Sen.Tim Scott underscores the fact that South Dakota’s GOP is not rock-solidly behind Trump. Johnson for his part has said he won’t endorse anybody, telling South Dakota Searchlight that endorsing candidates “is not something that I do.”

As to how Republican voters here feel about Trump, there hasn’t been any local polling. What’s interesting is that in two states with early primaries where there has been some polling, Trump’s lead is considerably more tenuous than it is on a national scale. In New Hampshire, a CNN/University of New Hampshire poll released a week ago has Trump showing up as the favored candidate by just 39% of GOP primary voters. 

In Iowa (where the state will have a caucus, not a primary), Trump does better, but a series of polls conducted there during September have his GOP support averaging slightly less than 50% overall. The words “commanding lead” still apply in both cases as you’ll see if you review my links and find how the other GOP candidates are doing, but the indication is that significant numbers of Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa are considering someone other than Donald Trump in ‘24.  

In South Dakota, the only statements of preference have come from Sens. Thune and Rounds, who effectively have split from Gov. Noem and have drawn her fire as a result. Johnson’s reticence to endorse anybody may be coy, but I take it to mean that he’s open to candidates other than Trump. That he won’t join Noem by jumping on the Trump bandwagon isn’t exactly a split, but the silence speaks for itself. And his failure to appear at the Rapid City Trump rally earlier this month says much for his lack of enthusiasm for Noem’s position on the ex-prez.

Going forward, the spots of indifference or outward hostility toward Trump seem likely to grow in number and size, depending on how things go for the former prez in the courtrooms that have a date with him in coming months.

As Trump’s legal perils evolve into mounds of ugly publicity and possible criminal convictions to go along with some recent civil setbacks, the effect will be to reduce the significant body of supporters that he now has. If a cascading series of legal setbacks materializes, many Republicans will be repelled by the news and start looking elsewhere for a presidential nominee. The resulting mess, which was previewed during the last debate, is sure to hurt whoever does get the nod.

Meantime, as I was preparing to post this I see a piece has just come out in the Washington Post headlined “Alarmed Republicans are preparing to draft Glenn Youngkin.” I’m paywalled, but the part I can read says: “Drafting Youngkin as a last-minute addition to the sclerotic Republican presidential field is something that has lingered for months as a donor fantasy — a whispered, can-you-imagine gambit rarely meriting much discussion because there has been widespread hope that somebody, anybody, would gain traction against former president Donald Trump. But now, fantasy talk of an audacious, break-the-glass moment for the anti-Trump faction has morphed into not-so-quiet consideration.”

According to the Post story, “some of the biggest Republican donors in the country” are involved.

See what I mean?

Pubs have to deal with a monster of their own making.

John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills.  He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years.  His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald.  Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam.