Trump gets his way on deporting Colombians, but tariff threats have consequences, as we know from his first term.
Donald Trump reacted swiftly and unceremoniously over the weekend.
First, Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro rejected U.S. airplanes when they tried to land in his country with loads of Colombians who were being deported home from the United States.
Next, Trump immediately threatened to tariff Colombian imports by 25%, doubling it to 50% in a week if flights were not resumed.
Then Petro responded by saying he would slap retaliatory tariffs on the United States, retorting to Trump: “Your blockade does not frighten me.” Petro demanded that he wanted the returning deportees returned under “dignified conditions.”
Finally, as it turned out, the Colombian president overplayed his hand and gave in. The standoff didn’t last for more than a couple of days. I haven’t seen any description of what “dignified conditions” will mean in terms of the way the people involved will be handled, but the U.S. got all that Trump wanted.
Flights will resume immediately and Trump is claiming a big win, saying in a White House statement that "today’s events make clear to the world that America is respected again.”
No question that this was an unequivocal win for Trump in the short term, but you have to wonder how this incident will be looked upon by a myriad of smaller countries who lean heavily on their relationship with the United States for good economic and diplomatic relations.
I mean, “co-operate or else” as a style of diplomacy may not be the best way to win friends and influence governments. Setting that tone so early in the Trump administration will probably make a lot of countries wary about the nature of their coming relations with a Trump-led United States.
Why? Because this incident just made it clear that there will be risks associated with dependence on the U.S.A.
The upshot? Trump may very well drive a lot of countries into friendlier, more economically codependent relationships with our principal economic competitor, China.
For the last few years, the subject of China and its aims to seek hegemony around the globe has been a topic of much discussion.
As a practical, South Dakota-specific example of how Trump’s general mishandling of trade and tariffs is working favorably toward China, consider the tariff war that Trump started during his first administration. He tried to bully China itself with tariffs, setting off a retaliatory trade war. China responded by reducing its imports of American farm products and turning elsewhere for supplies. Grain prices collapsed, with soybeans – a major South Dakota crop – falling to multi-year lows in 2018.
As to China’s next move after abandoning a sizable share of its American imports in its spat with the U.S., the question was, where would China turn in order to make up for many of its grain supplies? The answer: South America. Farm Progress says that since the first Trump trade war caused it to look toward Latin America for a dependable supplier, “it can now simply live off purchases from Brazil.”
China is now South America’s top trading partner according to the Council on Foreign Relations. It has also “invested heavily in Latin America and has strengthened its military ties with several countries, particularly Venezuela.”
So what’s that got to do with Colombia?
Well, just this. Even though they aren’t necessarily friendly neighbors, Colombia does have a 1,400 mile long border with Venezuela. Cozying up to the Chinese is a practical and proven option for South American countries seeking powerful friends.
The Trump administration seems to be crowing about its quick win against Colombia over an issue that is more about style (treating immigrants with “dignity”) than substance, but I have no doubt that the world is watching this intently and probably with some trepidation about relations with Trump.
As to the Chinese? They may have just found another opening in their quest for international hegemony.
John Tsitrian is a businessman and writer from the Black Hills. He was a weekly columnist for the Rapid City Journal for 20 years. His articles and commentary have also appeared in The Los Angeles Times, The Denver Post and The Omaha World-Herald. Tsitrian served in the Marines for three years (1966-69), including a 13-month tour of duty as a radioman in Vietnam. Republish with permission.
Photo: Colombian refugees, public domain, wikimedia commons
